Texans follow attentively as Colin Allred races Ted Cruz for a seat representing Texas in the U.S. Senate; as the race tightens, some voters ask themselves, could Texas turn blue?
This political race is marked by competitive campaigns. Texas is experiencing shifting voting trends, and tight polling margins between Cruz and Allred. These factors could pave the way for the first democratic candidate elected statewide in three decades.
“It’s going be a close race,” social science teacher Charles Stampley said. “But traditionally, Texas has been a Republican state.”
During Cruz’s last re-election in 2018, he beat Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke by a margin of 2.56 points. Now, running for re-election to his third term as U.S. Senator, Cruz faces a comparatively tight polling margin running against Allred. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average as of October 29, Cruz is 3.4 points ahead of Allred, well within the margin of error.
“I think Ted Cruz is surprised at how close the race still is,” government teacher Ruth Narvaiz said. “I think he just assumed he would win because he always has.”
Campaigning in this race, Cruz has emphasized to supporters the perceived threat Allred poses. Currently, Cruz’s campaign is running an ad stating that Allred wants to let men into women’s spaces. Some of Cruz’s most recent YouTube videos, as of October 29, are titled “If Democrats Flip Texas, the Republic is Lost,” “Colin Allred is a Radical Leftist,” and “Colin Allred is Kamala Harris.
“Cruz is resorting to a very old tactic,” Stampley said. “The number one motivator for people to vote is fear, and so he is trying to use that to get his supporters to vote.”
In Allred’s 2018 election to the U.S. House of Representatives, he flipped Texas’s 32nd district, which had previously only voted red. Allred has now held this congressional seat through three terms.
“He’s already a member of Congress, that should give him an advantage,” Narvaiz said. “He represents Dallas, that’s a big part of the voting block in Texas that has already elected him.”
Allred’s campaign has presented him as being moderate in comparison to other democrats, such as O’Rourke. Allred’s campaign currently runs an ad, titled “All Hat No Cattle,” showing Allred with border patrol agents, criticizing Cruz’s opposition to a bipartisan border bill earlier this year, which simultaneously portrays Allred as supporting bipartisan solutions.
“His [Allred’s] campaign is a lot more friendly to the people who are very democrat opposed and liberal opposed,” senior Adeline Mosel said. “He might be something Texas needs right now. I think his policies will win people over more than Beto’s will.”
On Friday, October 25, Allred spoke at Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s rally in Houston, Texas, the first time Allred and Harris have campaigned together. Previously in his campaign, Allred has not strongly associated himself with other democratic candidates, such as Harris, and
has, at times, been critical of the Biden administration.
“He’s been smart in Texas to distance himself because this is traditionally a red state,” Narvaiz said. “To not focus so much on ‘look I’m a democrat, I’m from the left’ but him as a person is going to increase his chances of winning.”
With the overturning of Roe v Wade, abortion is a bigger issue among voters than in previous elections. Cruz, who has previously been openly anti-abortion, has been comparatively quiet about the topic during his campaign.
“Poll after poll shows abortion rights are very important,” Stampley said. “He’s kind of on the wrong side of that, so that’s why he’s trying to downplay things.”
The Senate is one of two parts of the Legislative branch of the U.S. federal government and acts as a check on the executive branch. Therefore, how the Senate’s party majority aligns with the executive branch impacts what actions the future presidential administration will be able to take.
“Who controls the Senate could be a big deal depending on who the president is,” Narvaiz said. “If Ted Cruz loses, it’s a big deal for the country as a whole.”
Currently, Democrats hold a thin majority in the Senate, 51 to 49. However, it will be challenging for Democrats to hold their majority because in this election, as a third of the seats in the Senate go up for re-election, Democrats are defending 23 seats, two of which are predicted to flip red, while Republicans defend ten seats.
“To keep even a tie, they’d have to get Ted Cruz’s seat in Texas,” Stampley said. “So, it’s the most important race in the whole country.”
